The Final Problem

Anonymous asked: What is the most likely theory you've read/come up with so far as to how Sherlock pulled it off?

I gave a step-by-step explanation of how I think Sherlock faked his death in this photoset. The links listed in the post below the photos describe some of the aspects of the “big picture” theory in more detail.

I wrote that post as the start of a project called Reichenbach A to Z, the point of which is to encourage fans to try and put all their little theory pieces together into a full explanation. Check out the A to Z master list to find some other people’s opinions on how Sherlock did it.

romxjul asked: i love your reichenbach analysis, it's really extremely impressive. but i was wondering, as someone pointed out to me, how moriarty's surprise suicide fits into it. as in, sherlock could hardly have predicted it and wouldn't his plan not have worked if not for that? i'd love to hear your thoughts on this :)

I’m absolutely willing to believe that Jim’s suicide was a surprise for Sherlock. (Though I still draw a distinction between that moment of surprise and the alleged “panic attack” that was shown occurring slightly later. I think that was misdirection via editing, and really kind of a brilliant trick they played on us if so.) I already talked about how there has to be some limit on how far ahead these genius characters are going to be able to successfully deduce each other’s next move. Plus, Jim was insane. That made him inherently unpredictable even if Sherlock is very, very smart.

And I totally get where you’re coming from—if Jim hadn’t killed himself, wouldn’t he have just looked over the side of the building and seen that Sherlock cheated and broke his fall?

But let’s back up a little. By the time Sherlock went to meet Jim on the roof, he was definitely expecting to go through with jumping to his fake death if needed. We can tell because he already had so many specific preparations in place for that plan—no way he made things up as he went along.

Since that was Sherlock’s plan, we can also assume he had something set up to break his fall. It doesn’t matter if my particular guess about what that thing was is right—we just know he must’ve had something ready.

Whatever that fall-breaking something was, Jim probably would have been able to see Sherlock land on it if he watched the fall from the roof.

So I think we also have to assume that Sherlock had some sort of plan in mind for how to keep Jim from looking down for the few seconds during which his fall was broken. I mean, there’s really no other way Sherlock could have thought his trick was capable of fooling Jim, yet he was already fully committed to the stunt when he got to the roof.

Since Jim did end up killing himself, we may never know exactly what Sherlock was planning to do to keep Jim from looking over the edge. The fact that he asked Jim for a moment of privacy and Jim was completely willing to walk away suggests that it wouldn’t have been all that difficult to pull off, though.

kyralily asked: Given the height of the building and Sherlock's weight, the force of his impact would have been fairly large. What do you propose he landed upon to ameliorate the negative effects of the impact force?

See my Pink Suitcase Theory post and the followup post.

If we work under the assumption that it was really Sherlock who we saw jump off that building and land on the sidewalk, we know something broke his fall because otherwise he simply would not have survived. In the first post linked above, I suggested he landed in a laundry bin positioned on the sidewalk by his accomplices. In the second linked post, I discussed how I probably picked the wrong word to use and it was actually a rubbish bin. And I discussed how technically, it could have been something else in the same place, but listed some guidelines that the object would need to meet. So far no one’s suggested any other object to me that would meet those guidelines, so for now I’ll keep saying it was a rubbish bin that they used to catch him. (Of course, it wouldn’t have had to be filled with actual rubbish— it could’ve been filled with the best possible impact-absorbing materials that fit the circumstances. It only had to look like rubbish.)

I know some people have issues with the idea that there was anything Sherlock could’ve landed on that would’ve sufficiently broken the fall and kept him from from being injured. Because, y’know, physics. But if we go back to the old “when you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth” routine, we can say it’s impossible that there exists no landing material good enough to pull this trick off. Because he definitely landed on something before he hit the ground, and whatever it was absolutely worked.

It’s also worth keeping in mind the reference Sherlock made to magic tricks. If my understanding of his plan is correct, it is literally made up of a series of magic tricks. Magicians like David Blaine have pulled off the “fall from something tall and land on something that seems less-than-ideal but still survive” trick before.

adequateandrew asked: it's not a laundry truck, it's a rubbish truck filled with bin bags, just to clear it up

I’m assuming this comment is about the Pink Suitcase Theory?

I know the style of truck is a rubbish truck, but I had to call it something in that theory because I wasn’t going to do “and/or” the whole time. Like I mentioned, it was the colors of what’s in it that ultimately made me go with “laundry truck.”

But maybe it’s not a weird thing in the UK to see a rubbish truck full of only white, blue, and green bin bags? With no black or grey bags? I do not claim to have any idea. And maybe the idea of hospital laundry with some kind of color-coordinated bags is silly, but like I said… had to pick something to call it, and that’s where my brain landed at the time.

If you (and I am addressing this to everyone, not just the OP) think it’s a rubbish truck, then just mentally replace the word “laundry” with the word “rubbish” throughout the theory. They’re both things that could break a fall and are frequently wheeled about in large bins in industrial settings. The actual theory is really “they used the [thing you can land on] truck as an excuse to have a bin of [thing you can land on] ready to catch Sherlock.”

Actually, as long as I’m on the subject, I’ll say this as well: There’s a reason I called it “The Pink Suitcase Theory” and not “The Laundry Bin Theory.” It’s because I think the logic behind seeing that there was something edited out of the scene that caught Sherlock and was immediately removed from the sidewalk is more important than what that object actually was.

If someone has another idea for what they brought out to break Sherlock’s fall in that scenario, I’m willing to consider it. Please note, however, that this thing:

• probably needs to be on wheels, because it was gone within the time it took John to jog 10-12 steps
• probably can’t have required a lot of people to help with, because they clear out too quickly and it would be a giveaway to the assassin that something’s up
• needs to fit naturally into the sidewalk/hospital environment—again, no bringing out trampolines with an assassin watching
• should be hinted at in a reasonable way in the episode, since they said all the fair clues were there

anaimia asked: Hahaha, I didn't even read your theory, and came up with the same thing. Amused. If you look, there's also this weird truck-sized square on the ground next to Sherlock! :x Maybe that's where the bin was? OR THE TRUCK ITSELF ON THE CURB?! Cause no one's there, and Watson can't see the truck and ALL THE SUDDEN ITS PULLING AWAY?! Oh yeah. High Five?

High five on hold until it turns out to be true. But if it is—the highest of fives, my friend.

The rectangle on the ground actually isn’t anything Sherlock added, but something built into the sidewalk. You can see it on Google Street View. Which isn’t to say they couldn’t have incorporated it somehow, but there is also the chance it is just there.

I don’t know about the idea of the truck pulling onto the sidewalk to catch Sherlock. That seems like a dead giveaway (pardon the pun) when you have an assassin watching to make sure you don’t survive. Or if Sherlock was going to have a truck park on the sidewalk and catch him, it seems like he would at least be clever enough to choose a truck without see-through sides.

I did a long post about that yesterday. With diagrams, even.

You can choose to read it or not, but that’s honestly the best idea I have for you on the subject at the moment. If I think of anything else, I’ll let you know. Maybe I will invent a theory that involves Sherlock sliding down the neck of one of those feral London giraffes.

And I think that idea’s a sign that we’ve had enough Sherlock Theory Question Time for tonight. Maybe we should try this again when I haven’t been up for something like 23 hours straight. [Note to self.]